Armenian Culture, Science and Education Development Foundation

Armenia is to Win in “Eurovision 2015″.The Guardian’s data-driven prediction

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As The British Guardian reports, they’re having a shot at predicting who is going to follow in the footsteps of Conchita Wurst as the winner of the contest.
Their model is not based on the quality of the songs (or the lack thereof), but on an average of votes each participating nation received over the past 12 years, which is then adjusted for factors that include present day geopolitics, form in more recent editions, past performance and tempo.

According to The Guardian in 2011, the winners, Azerbaijan, were in their top-three, and then in 2013 they backed Azerbaijan, who came second. They have now spent the last two years tinkering with the model and hope the improvements they’re  introducing mean that their projected winner will be the one to take it all.

So without further ado, the Guardian data prediction for Eurovision 2015 winner is…

Genealogy’s controversial “Face the Shadow” references the mass murder of 1.5m Armenians by the Ottoman Empire in 1915. It was originally called “Don’t Deny” – Turkey still contests that it was not a genocide, and this title was deemed too political by Eurovision organisers.

Other countries their model expects will make the top 10 include Serbia, Sweden, and Azerbaijan.


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